Systems like Martingale and Row of numbers use high levels of progression, which for the punters. With these systems bets increase in losses and thus for the players there is a huge risk of bankruptcy.
In the Kelly Criteria progression grow until you win and decreases when you lose. The amount of the bet is determined by a percentage of the size of your funds. In the Kelly Criteria risk of bankruptcy is virtually eliminated. This system, however, requires the player to have an advantage in projections to the bookmaker. When you bet using Kelly is expected to be on par or better than the bookmaker. If the home is estimated at 2.00 in a match, you bet only if you think it has a 50% chance to win.
Kelly Criterion has received its name from John L. Kelly, the American who invented this theory and formula. In short, Kelly's theory says that if you can determine with great accuracy the approximate outcome of the matches, then by formula can determine the exact amount of your fund means you need to bet on the corresponding match. The formula looks like this:
A = P - (1 - P) / (odds. - 1)
And - this is the percentage of separated from you means that you can bet on matches (column).
P - it's likely to get a similar outcome.
If you have found an object with odds 2.00 and you think that likelihood to win the match 55% on Kelly's formula can easily calculate how much money to bet. R in this formula in this example is equal to 0.55, and the calculation results show A = 0.1.
This percentage means that the object is worth 10% of your total funds. Nothing more, nothing less. If you are too optimistic in their expectations (eg you think the chance is 60% instead of 55% that are "calculated" in advance, and much more correct), then you will lose your money
This is due to the fact that Kelly's formula optimizes your stakes if you know its accuracy to predict. If you are too optimistic in their forecasts, you will lose money. If you're too pessimistic, you will earn money, but less than if freely operate with betting (but small profit is still a profit).
Fund size to play
For starters you need a pool of money to play 10-15 times the normal amount of money that singlebet. Of course, this should be money you can afford to lose. Remember that at the Kelly Criteria, you can not lose all your money at once, because the stakes are always determined by the current state of your balance.
To choose the games correctly and often enough is the hardest part of this system. Only by gaining experience you can become a better player. The bookies do not offer enough "good bets" and therefore it is necessary to find them yourself. Do not expect to find more than 2 to 5 games during the week. When you find such a game, analyze it carefully from all sides. Duration of the project?
How long should you play with this system? If you set goal must put an end as soon as you reach it and start over. This is the only way to find out how much you earned and this will increase your level of morale and discipline. If you do not set goal, put an end to the project the moment you reach 100% pure profit. Remember that while your money to the account of the bookmaker, he, not you dispose of them. And what's the point of earning money that you can not use?
Let us now consider the system closely:
The biggest advantage of Kelly is that you lose less money when you have little money account. This is due to the fact that every bet is a percentage of the current balance when it is low, the stakes too low. If your average stake is 10% of your balance and lose six times in a row, you will still have 48% of the original amount. I will not bore you with statistics, but if you predict better (bet 10% advantage over the bookmaker), the chance to lose 10 times in a row is 1/3000 !!!
Kelly is not a system that can quickly change your balance. With Kelly you win in small range, about 5% of vsvki match. If you present yourself well, Kelly helps you increase your bets and profits. If you lose - they decrease. Because it is unlikely you happen to suffer serious changes in the balance. Kelly is a system for players who do not gamble only money, but also the pleasure of good prognosis.